“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”
– Theodore Hook (1788 – 1841), English “man of letters,” known for his writings and his practical jokes
Thousands of businesses are conducting forecasting events this week, trying to estimate a range of impacts to their businesses as they operate in what one of my teammates calls “the new abnormal.” These exercises will re-emphasize the importance of the questions we ask, over the answers we believe to be true. In each case, I bet any of us could add ten really great questions to the lists below. The intent of this post is to help guide those conversations today, in such a way that surviving businesses come out on the other side of this event better prepared to be trusted advisors for their Clients.
So, when executive teams sit down to talk about “what if our clients do”… and “what if our clients don’t…” one way to structure it is SHADAWANWAEG:
SHADAWANWAEG
Corollary: In assessing a Client base’s vulnerability to a major economic event, it’s a good idea to start with a clean whiteboard, just as we use empty boxes to assess an org design.
Corollary II: Client-facing teams should have been and should now ask and record the answers to these questions (and others), whether another icky event happens or not, simply because of the depth of relationship-equity these dialogues provide.
Back to the Crisis Assessment Meeting at the Whiteboard in the Boardroom…
On that whiteboard, after we write up “Current SItuation Description,” we start with SHA. Questions we should have asked. As early as we can in a business relationship, we need to know.
“What is your ownership structure? How many shareholders? Which owner(s) have the tiebreaker votes when big decisions have to be made? LLC, C-Corp, S-Corp, PC — what’s the legal structure? What happens if one of the owners wins Powerball and moves to Fiji? What is the succession plan? When I say “business continuity,” what comes to mind? “Disaster recovery?” How well does your capital structure support major shifts in the market? Who is your bank? Are they local, national? Are you personally guaranteeing debt if you have any? In a crisis, which owner or manager can act without permission from the others? What does your general decision-making process look like?
By knowing what we don’t know, we’ll understand where we’re flying blind – and where we need more answers.
Next we go to DA: questions we did ask (but which answers might shine in a very different light right now).
We probably know things like revenue, number of locations, emergency contact numbers (although you’ll be amazed how few of your clients have “official” emergency contacts for real emergencies…), seasonality, competitive landscape / competitors, locality / regionality of their customers, sensitivity to outside influences (weather, labor union strikes in the area…in Wichita, KS, when I worked in the Anheuser-Busch system, the aircraft workers unions went on strike and I expected my business to crater, but I learned that in a strike in a union town, beer sales skyrocket, for example).
Next, lets focus on questions we will ask now. (WAN):
“Are you safe? Is your family safe? Are your employees and their families safe? Are your suppliers supplying? What worries you / scares you the most? What are your peers suggesting? What are your competitors doing? How can I help? Have you staged your business continuity plans – if you’re shut down until _________, at what point does that _________? What’s the best idea you’ve seen from a peer / competitor / provider? Have you applied for grants or SBA / PPP support loans?
At this point, we’ll be able to draw some conclusions that are based in fact. Probably not too many, though. We should record them and monitor them, for sure. More likely, we are in a position to make some wild-ass educated guesses (WAEG):
Based on what we know, _____________ is likely to happen, we must solve for that and here are the __________ (three, four, etc) most likely impacts for our business.
Based on what we think we know, ______________ may happen, and as we solve for that, we should list the likely impact to our business for each possibility in general terms.*
Based on what we need to know, we’ll deploy our best people to get the answers or at least the indicators, and from there, we’ll refine our plans.
Based on our wild-ass-educated-guesses, we’ll establish three strategic foundations, in general terms*, and refine the tactics behind them as the reality plays out. We’ll begin and go forward with a focus on the most-likely case, with contingencies for best-case and worst-case impacts.
It ain’t perfect. It’s a framework. I hope it helps you make a difference for the people who are counting on you to make a difference.
*Editor’s Note: General terms — not deep detail! If we try to solve at the third or fourth level of detail at this point, we’ll spin our wheels and depress ourselves. Strategy is a high-level consideration, and tactics follow as strategies evolve. I’ll bet you a good glass of single-barrel bourbon that the winners will get their strategies 80% right, and find that their tactics change five or six times, minimum, going forward…
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