“An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.”
– Evan Esar (1899 – 1995), American humorist and author of Esar’s Comic Dictionary
The more we rely on forecasts, the more susceptible we become to losing our way.
Are forecasts important? Absolutely. In the business of selling, there aren’t many disciplines more worthy of our time and attention. In fact, it might be the most important exercise in which we engage. But it’s a sucker’s bet to rely on the forecasts that we make.
The more we rely on execution, the more likely we are to reach our best destination. Yes, executing on something is better than predicting just about anything.
To paraphrase Esar — predicting precisely is to miss completely, in advance.
So, how do we engage in forecasting?
Forecast in likelihoods; most-likely, best-case and worst-case.
Decide which questions we’ll ask and answer. What could happen and why? What would we have to do and when? What would have to go right / wrong?
What do we know? What don’t we know? What do we know we need to know no matter what we don’t know that we need to know? (That was fun to write, but Grammarly almost melted down over it…)
Great forecasters ask and answer, relentlessly, presuming they’ll be wrong while still giving themselves multiple paths to choose that will get them close to “right.”
Tomorrow, on-ramps and off-ramps — and their role in both forecasting and executing.
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