“When you first believe a thing to be true, your first responsibility is to do everything you can to disprove it.”
- Dr. Kary Mullis (b. 1944 – 2019), Winner of 1993 Nobel Prize in Chemistry
This is going to be a Roy H. Williams week. So, get ready to be a better message maker, marketer, and maybe more smarter than you were Sunday night. Subscribe to The Monday Morning Memo. Just do it, and send me some sort of formal thank you or an elaborate gift later.
It’s also gonna be a long post. Hold this thought through it. How resilient is your strategy for your business or career? How much will it help to have some insight so that you can build contingencies based on what is likely to happen?
On the first page of the Preface of Roy’s 2012 book, Pendulum; How Past Generations Shape Our Present and Predict Our Future, Dr. Mullis talks about the fundamentals of basic science. Real scientists, you see take the approach outlined above. “Too often,” he says, “a scientist will develop a hypothesis and then look for supporting evidence.”
Roy readily admits that some things have changed since the book was published, yet his research goes back three-thousand years, and he explains that we live in forty year cycles. Yes, I know that Social Media makes it seem like we live in 40-second cycles, but hang with me here.
To dumb it down, we rotate between “Me Cycles” (I’m not ok, you’re ok…) and “We Cycles” (I’m ok, you’re not ok…). For Me Cycles, think “Hero Worship,” and for “We Cycles” think “Witch Hunt.” (You should read the book, but I’m gonna take a Ruthian swing at it this week…)
Me Cycles are, not ironically, about the individual. I demand freedom of expression, I believe ____________ is wiser than a million other men, I have big dreams and I had better be “Number One” in my life / world / purview.
We Cycles are about the group, the team, the tribe. We cycles applaud personal accountability, seek a better world, believe that a million men are wiser than one man, and demand conformity for the common good.
Guess which cycle we’re in? Not fair, we’re right, smack-dab in the middle…
2003 – 2023 represented a 20-year upswing into a “We Cycle.” It’s at this point of the book that Roy says “Opie don’t live in Mayberry anymore.” He talks about the elimination of the carefree days we (as kids) might have experienced at the expense of them “becoming a savvy, streetwise generation that was never given a chance to be naive.”
According to historical trends, 2023 – 2043 will be a downswing into a Me Cycle. Predictions include a “continuing erosion of public education. ” Another suggests a backlash against organizers of religion whose messages revolve around money, a backlash against political power, tortured efforts and commitment to re-establishing and sustaining a middle class, and creating a new pathway to wealth.
People want to call these unprecedented times. Pendulum says they ain’t. And it’s worth the read.